12/29 Poll: When Will the Mfg. Recession End?

[Frank Chloupek]

Current Poll Question:

When do you think manufacturing will come out of recession?

• 1st half of 2009
• 2nd half of 2009
• 1st half of 2010
• 2nd half of 2010 or later

Vote Now at:

http://www.industryweek.com#Poll

After you have voted, post your comments in this thread

[Abogle]

There should have been a "never" choice. US mfg has been in a near constant decline for most of the last decade.

As long as we continue to have a lack of a coherent industrial policy, economic policies favoring the financial sector over mfg, and unfair trade deals that favor foreign producers over our own, as well as a lack of interest in mfg by the general public and the politicians, and uneducated consumers on the real costs of buying cheap imported products do not look for any rebound of US mfg in any meaningful way

[tjelinski]

I tend to agree with the previous comments... In my twenty years of manufactring there is always pressure to outsource to cheaper and foreign providers. The recession for manufacturing will not end. We can strive to understand (and accept) what the new low is and that competition for even that level will be among the best in class. For Great Lake states with 20% of the GDP from manufacturing and national average below 13% ... the recession will not end until we reach the Long-term historical trend of the AG Model. Ag and Non-Durable GDP's are below 8% of the economy. People do not care where things are made much like they don't care where fruit is grown. The economics say that people buy the cheapest at Walmart and Sam's club. Period. The question for most reading this is will you be among the fiercly competitive still contributing to the 7% GDP of Mfg in the future or working at the WalMart?

[ssg1631]

I think that the Mfg. recession will end in the fourth quarter 2009 or first quarter 2010. We need to realize that our manufacturing base will not be able to produce until people begin to buy. Right now many organizations are laying off or have already laid off great employees. The result of their lay off will not allow the purchase of non essential items.

Lets hope in the future our new president finds some way to get people working. Will it mean retraining a workforce? Possibly, but this time lets do the retraining right and teach the basics expecting long term benefits. Right now, with many businesses in suspended mode-now is the time to begin designing the future training program. Now is the time to begin engaging help that can assist with lean operations and make our businesses once again profitable in the 21st century. Our older training methods can no longer be the norm if we are going to compete with other country's for their manufacturing base.

[Frank Chloupek]

When do you think manufacturing will come out of recession?

• 1st half of 2009 -- 8.56%
• 2nd half of 2009 -- 38.24%
• 1st half of 2010 -- 28.34%
• 2nd half of 2010 or later -- 24.87%

Over half think Manufacturing will be in recession for all of 2009 (and abogle for a far piece longer).

[willymusgrave]

Hi,

Recessions come about as a result of instability in monetary supple (too many dollars chasing too few goods or vice-versa). I for one have started to look again at barter exchanges as a way of supplementing my businesses income and, more importantly, to reduce my existing cash costs.

I figure if I can remove 20% of my current cash outgoings but still have those services (by bartering) then I will be able to cope with a loss of up to 20% cash income without ANY affect on my current position.

I intend to draw up a list of expenses I have - things like printing, advertising, material costs, cleaning, profesisonal services etc - and then take them to several barter exchanges to see who could get those things for me - every week, like clockwork, in return for my own product I sell [cleaning goods].

I like this idea of bartering because its not the same as one-on-one trade and I think it will help me with lowering my cash outgoings - provided they can find me new customers on barter in return for the things I want.

This whole idea came to me when I recieved an email out of the blue from someone at a company called Ormita (www.ormita.com for those interested). There was an article by one of their owners about the recession and economic policies and how barter could help small businesses like mine. It would be even BETTER if I was in a service industry (because then I would just be swapping my spare time for things I already bought using cash) BUT they say they let me do part cash and part trade so it seems pretty good as well.

I recomment bartering as a way to sustain business at this stage and when the economy gets better I will review my position. I did look at Bartercard UK by the way but their fees were way way too high (15% in cash versus Ormitas 7%) and they charge me to join. There is also another smaller exchange nearby who I intend to meet with their owners soon to see how they go because they are somewhere in between and more local.

Just my ideas..

[112inky]

i think it will never come out of recession in recent years