Will Large Birth Rate Bring Manufacturing Back To U.S.?

[Adrienne Selko]

It seems that one demographic analyst, Kenneth W. Gronbach, CEO of KGC Direct, thinks that the new "Baby Boom" will result in manufacturing coming back to the U.S.

Of the record number of live births in 2007, 4,315,000 -- which broke a 50-year fertility record -- he says, “This bodes well for the future of the United States.The dramatic rise in our country’s birth rate will bring industry back home. I believe we will have a large, sophisticated, competitive workforce that sets us apart from other Western countries. This is huge.”

An annual birth rate of this magnitude has not been seen in America since the middle of the Baby Boom years; in 1957, 4,300,000 live births were recorded.

Gronbach anticipates a resurgence of domestic manufacturing. He notes that China, who is the top competitor to the U.S. in the number of births, is systematically eliminating its labor force with its one-child policy. He also points out that other nations are facing declining birth rates as well.

Looking especially at China, Gronbach notes that increased shipping costs, inflation, a weak U.S. dollar and high energy costs, all of which will make China's manufactured products cost more in the U.S., will help bring back domestic manufacturing.

Gronbach also points out that the record number of U.S. births in 2007 is not a freak occurrence, but part of a significant and growing trend toward having bigger families. Generation Y, defined by Gronbach as having been born between 1985-2010, will be 100 million people, 20 million more than the Baby Boom generation. “This will provide a large and savvy workforce, the best the nation has ever seen,” says Gronbach. “Our technical schools will be filled with the best and the brightest,” Gronbach predicts.

[Raaj]

The logic of relating birth rate to manufacturing amuses me. I personally feel that it is very difficult for people who are brought up in a white collar family lifestyle to take up blue collar jobs. The Chinese are going through the same phase which Japan went through 30-40 years ago. Nowadays, the Japanese too shun blue collar jobs, so they are getting the manufacturing jobs done in other low cost countries. Cost of manufacturing is another factor which may make it difficult to get manufacturing back to the U.S.

Manufacturing will go back to countries like U.S. and Japan when these countries will realize that they are at a loss by transferring their technology to other countries who would just copy it without paying heed to patents and other contracts. Lack of control over quality over the final products and patriotism are other factors which may bring back manufacturing to these countries.

[kgcdirect]

The logic of not relating birth rates to workforce and manufacturing amuses me. Workforces are after all people. If the people were never born they can't be part of the workforce. China is going to find this out in the next ten years. You cannot remove 400 million live births through legislation over three decades and expect your labor force to be unaffected. Japan's fertility has dropped below replacement level to 1.2 children per couple. Japan not only will not have a future labor force they will be lucky to have a country in fifty years. In the United States we have been having kids at record levels for twenty years and guess what now we have the biggest and best potential labor force in our history, more than we can employ. Please don't tell me they won't do manufacturing jobs. They will fight for manufacturing jobs. Competition is the mother of excellence.
Ken Gronbach